SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 78

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the second month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25?

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Definitions:

Method of Elimination

A technique for solving systems of linear equations by adding or subtracting equations in order to eliminate one of the variables.

System of Equations

A set of equations with the same variables, where the solution must satisfy all the equations in the system simultaneously.

Method of Substitution

A technique used to solve systems of equations by solving one equation for one variable and substituting that expression into the other equation.

System of Equations

A set of equations with the same variables, which are solved together to find a common solution for those variables.