Use the Information Below to Answer the Following Question(s)

question 37

Multiple Choice

Use the information below to answer the following question(s) . Below is a decision tree illustrating the R&D process for a new drug. Let us assume that if market is large, payoff is lognormally distributed with a mean of $4,900 million and a standard deviation of $1,000 million; if market is medium, payoff is lognormally distributed with a mean of $2,500 million and a standard deviation of $500 million; and if market is small, payoff is normally distributed with a mean of $1,800 million and standard deviation of
$200 million. Let us also assume that the cost of clinical trials is uncertain and estimates are modeled with a triangular distribution with a minimum of -$700 million, a most likely value of - $550 million, and a maximum of -$500 million. Use 10,000 trials and a random seed of 1.
-What is the value of standard deviation obtained from the simulation results? [Hint: Choose the approximate value.]

• A) $ 119.1
• B) $ 116.1
• C) $ 105.7
• D) $ 94.4

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Definitions:

Milgram Experiment

A psychological experiment conducted by Stanley Milgram in the 1960s to study obedience to authority, where participants were instructed to administer electric shocks to another person.

Stanford University Prison Experiment

A psychological study conducted by Philip Zimbardo in 1971 at Stanford University, where students were assigned roles of prisoners and guards to explore the effects of perceived power.

Generalization

Drawing a conclusion about a certain characteristic of a population based on a sample from it.

Logical Support

The provision of reasons or evidence to justify a claim or argument.