Use the Information Below to Answer the Following Question(s)

question 47

Multiple Choice

Use the information below to answer the following question(s) . Below is a decision tree illustrating the R&D process for a new drug. Let us assume that if market is large, payoff is lognormally distributed with a mean of $4,900 million and a standard deviation of $1,000 million; if market is medium, payoff is lognormally distributed with a mean of $2,500 million and a standard deviation of $500 million; and if market is small, payoff is normally distributed with a mean of $1,800 million and standard deviation of
$200 million. Let us also assume that the cost of clinical trials is uncertain and estimates are modeled with a triangular distribution with a minimum of -$700 million, a most likely value of - $550 million, and a maximum of -$500 million. Use 10,000 trials and a random seed of 1.
-What is the coefficient of variation obtained from the simulation results? [Hint: Choose the approximate value.]

• A) 1.587
• B) 1.122
• C) 2.015
• D) 1.890

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Definitions:

Customers In Service

The number of customers currently being served or assisted in a service-based business or setting.

Probability

The measure of the likelihood or chance that a particular event will occur, expressed as a number between 0 and 1.

System

A set of connected elements or components that function together as a complex whole, often described in terms of inputs, processes, outputs, and feedback.

Customer

An individual or organization that purchases goods or services from another entity, typically playing a vital role in the entity's revenue stream.