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Use the information below to answer the following questions) . Below is a decision tree illustrating the R&D process for a new drug. Let us assume that if market is large, payoff is lognormally distributed with a mean of $4,900 million and a standard deviation of $1,000 million; if market is medium, payoff is lognormally distributed with a mean of $2,500 million and a standard deviation of $500 million; and if market is small, payoff is normally distributed with a mean of $1,800 million and standard deviation of
$200 million. Let us also assume that the cost of clinical trials is uncertain and estimates are modeled with a triangular distribution with a minimum of -$700 million, a most likely value of -
$550 million, and a maximum of -$500 million. Use 10,000 trials and a random seed of 1.
-What is the value of mean obtained from the simulation results? [Hint: Choose the approximate value.]
Water-Soluble Peptides
Molecules composed of short chains of amino acids that are soluble in water, playing various roles in biological processes including signaling and regulation.
Mineralocorticoids
A class of steroids, including aldosterone, that are produced by the adrenal cortex and regulate electrolyte and water balance.
Insulin Secretion
The method through which insulin, a hormone that assists in controlling blood sugar levels, is discharged by the pancreas.
Skeletal Muscle
A type of muscle tissue that is attached to bones through tendons and is involved in the generation of force to move the body.
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