Refer to the Table Which Summarizes the Results of Testing

question 51

Multiple Choice

Refer to the table which summarizes the results of testing for a certain disease. $\begin{array}{l|cc} & \begin{array}{l}\text { Positive } \\\text { Test Result }\end{array} & \begin{array}{l}\text { Negative } \\\text { Test Result }\end{array} \\\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Subject has the disease } \\\text { Subject does not have the } \\\text { disease }\end{array} & 111 & 4 \\& 11 & 172\end{array}$
If one of the results is randomly selected, what is the probability that it is a false negative (test indicates the person does not have the disease when in fact they do) ? What does this probability suggest about the accuracy of the test?

• A) \(0.0369\); The probability of this error is low so the test is fairly accurate.
• B) \(0.0348\); The probability of this error is low so the test is fairly accurate.
• C) \(0.591\); The probability of this error is high so the test is not very accurate.
• D) \(0.0134\); The probability of this error is low so the test is fairly accurate.

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Definitions:

Seasonal Variation

It refers to periodic fluctuations in data or observations that occur regularly based on seasonal changes throughout the year.

Cyclical Movement

Refers to the fluctuating trends in economic variables or indicators that follow the cyclical ups and downs of the economy over time.

Moving Average Method

A technique used in time series analysis to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles.

Exponential Smoothing

A technique used in time series data to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles.