SCENARIO 16-15-A
You Are the CEO of a Diary Company

question 18

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-15-A
You are the CEO of a diary company. The total milk production (in gallons) from your company
over the past 30 years are presented below and also contained in the Excel file SCENARIO 16-
15-A.XLSX. $$\begin{array} { l r r r r r r r r r r r } \text { Year } & 1986 & 1987 & 1988 & 1989 & 1990 & 1991 & 1992 & 1993 & 1994 & 1995 \\& 1996 & 1997 & 1998 & 1999 & 2000 & 2001 & 2002 & 2003 & 2004 & 2005 \\& 2006 & 2007 & 2008 & 2009 & 2010 & 2011 & 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 \\\text { Milk } & 150201 & 172719 & 171357 & 157121 & 155727 & 152974 & 153443 & 158548 & 162614 & 164210 \\\text { Prod } & & & & & & & & & \\& 159127 & 153866 & 165992 & 177843 & 167477 & 163821 & 161700 & 170348 & 174105 & 185103 \\& 184670 & 173385 & 159695 & 173641 & 165706 & 171164 & 168706 & 150684 & 179314 & 163802\end{array}$$ You want to predict your company's future total milk production using the linear trend, quadratic
trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and third-order
autoregressive model.
-Referring to Scenario 16-15-A, what is the exponentially smoothed value for 1986 using a
smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25?

---

Definitions:

Frustration

An emotional state that arises when a person is blocked from achieving a goal or fulfilling a need, leading to feelings of discontent and dissatisfaction.

Need for Achievement

The drive to excel, to achieve in relation to a set of standards, to strive to succeed.

Inaugural Speeches

Formal addresses given by a person assuming a new position or office, especially by the President at the commencement of their term, outlining their intentions and philosophy.

Ineffective Leaders

Leaders who lack the skills, abilities, or motivation to effectively manage or guide a team or organization towards its goals.