SCENARIO 16-15-A
You Are the CEO of a Diary Company

question 41

True/False

SCENARIO 16-15-A
You are the CEO of a diary company. The total milk production (in gallons) from your company
over the past 30 years are presented below and also contained in the Excel file SCENARIO 16-
15-A.XLSX. $$\begin{array} { l r r r r r r r r r r r } \text { Year } & 1986 & 1987 & 1988 & 1989 & 1990 & 1991 & 1992 & 1993 & 1994 & 1995 \\& 1996 & 1997 & 1998 & 1999 & 2000 & 2001 & 2002 & 2003 & 2004 & 2005 \\& 2006 & 2007 & 2008 & 2009 & 2010 & 2011 & 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 \\\text { Milk } & 150201 & 172719 & 171357 & 157121 & 155727 & 152974 & 153443 & 158548 & 162614 & 164210 \\\text { Prod } & & & & & & & & & \\& 159127 & 153866 & 165992 & 177843 & 167477 & 163821 & 161700 & 170348 & 174105 & 185103 \\& 184670 & 173385 & 159695 & 173641 & 165706 & 171164 & 168706 & 150684 & 179314 & 163802\end{array}$$ You want to predict your company's future total milk production using the linear trend, quadratic
trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and third-order
autoregressive model.
-Referring to Scenario 16-15-A, you can reject the null hypothesis for testing
the appropriateness of the third-order autoregressive model at the 5% level of significance.

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Definitions:

Mutual Exclusivity Assumption

The cognitive bias in children to assume that each object only has one name and each name refers to only one object, facilitating language acquisition.

Fetal Hormones

Hormones produced by the fetus during pregnancy that play critical roles in its development, influencing various physiological and developmental processes.

Zone Of Proximal Development

An idea in the field of educational psychology that defines the gap between a learner's ability to perform a task on their own and their capability to accomplish more advanced tasks with the assistance and support of a more experienced individual.

Pretend Play

A form of play in which children use their imagination to create scenarios, roles, and activities that are not present in reality.