SCENARIO 16-9 Given Below Are EXCEL Outputs for Various Estimated Autoregressive Models

question 53

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-9
Given below are EXCEL outputs for various estimated autoregressive models for a company's real operating revenues (in billions of dollars) from 1989 to 2012.From the data,you also know that the real operating revenues for 2010,2011,and 2012 are 11.7909,11.7757 and 11.5537,respectively.
First-Order Autoregressive Model:
Second-Order Autoregressive Model:

-Referring to Scenario 16-9 and using a 5% level of significance,what is the appropriate autoregressive model for the company's real operating revenue?

• A)First-Order Autoregressive Model
• B)Second-Order Autoregressive
• C)Third-Order Autoregressive
• D)Any of the above

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Definitions:

Forecast Error

The variance between what actually happens and the forecasts from prediction models.

Expected Value

Expected value is a concept in probability that calculates the average outcome when the future involves scenarios that may or may not happen.

Moving Average Forecast

A method used in time series analysis to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles.

Observable Trend

A pattern, change, or movement in data or events that can be detected and analyzed through observation.