SCENARIO 16-13
Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data

question 169

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S. retail sales of building materials over a
specific year. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Retail Sales } \\\hline 1 & 6,594 \\\hline 2 & 6,610 \\\hline 3 & 8,174 \\\hline 4 & 9,513 \\\hline 5 & 10,595 \\\hline 6 & 10,415 \\\hline 7 & 9,949 \\\hline 8 & 9,810 \\\hline 9 & 9,637 \\\hline 10 & 9,732 \\\hline 11 & 9,214 \\\hline 12 & 9,201 \\\hline\end{array}$$ The results of the linear trend, quadratic trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive,
second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which
the coded month for the 1st month is 0: $\text { Linear trend model: }$
$\begin{array}{lrrrr} & \text { Coefficients } & \text { Standard Error } & \text { t Stat } & \text { P-value } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 7950.7564 & 617.6342 & 12.8729 & 0.0000 \\\text { Coded Month } & 212.6503 & 95.1145 & 2.2357 & 0.0494\end{array}$

$\text { Quadratic trend model: }$


$\text { Exponential trend model: }$
$\begin{array}{lrrrr}\hline & \text { Coefficients } & \text { Standard Error } & \text { t Stat } & \text { P-value } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 3.8912 & 0.0315 & 123.3674 & 0.0000 \\\text { Coded Month } & 0.0116 & 0.0049 & 2.3957 & 0.0376\end{array}$


$\text { First-order autoregressive: }$
$\begin{array}{lrrrr} & \text { Coefficients } & \text { Standard Error } & t \text { Stat } & {\text { P-value }} \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 3132.0951 & 1287.2899 & 2.4331 & 0.0378 \\\text { YLag1 } & 0.6823 & 0.1398 & 4.8812 & 0.0009 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Referring to Scenario 16-13, what is your forecast for the $13 ^ { \text {th } }$ month using the second-
order autoregressive model?

Distinguish between individualism and collectivism and masculinity and femininity in cultural dimensions.

Explain the significance of myths in conveying cultural truths and shaping consumer perceptions.

Discuss Hofstede’s five cross-cultural values and their relevance to marketing strategies.

Understand the concept and examples of self-gifting behavior.

---

Definitions:

Overdraft

An amount beyond what is currently in the account.

Bank Account

A financial account maintained by a bank or other financial institution for the deposit and withdrawal of money by the account holder.

Check

A written, dated, and signed instrument that contains an unconditional order directing a bank to pay a definite sum of money to a payee.

Writing A Check

The act of completing a check form to make a payment from a checking account to a person or entity.