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SCENARIO 16-15-A
You Are the CEO of a Diary Company

question 197

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SCENARIO 16-15-A
You are the CEO of a diary company. The total milk production (in gallons) from your company
over the past 30 years are presented below and also contained in the Excel file SCENARIO 16-
15-A.XLSX.  Year 198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 Milk 150201172719171357157121155727152974153443158548162614164210 Prod 159127153866165992177843167477163821161700170348174105185103184670173385159695173641165706171164168706150684179314163802\begin{array} { l r r r r r r r r r r r } \text { Year } & 1986 & 1987 & 1988 & 1989 & 1990 & 1991 & 1992 & 1993 & 1994 & 1995 \\& 1996 & 1997 & 1998 & 1999 & 2000 & 2001 & 2002 & 2003 & 2004 & 2005 \\& 2006 & 2007 & 2008 & 2009 & 2010 & 2011 & 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 \\\text { Milk } & 150201 & 172719 & 171357 & 157121 & 155727 & 152974 & 153443 & 158548 & 162614 & 164210 \\\text { Prod } & & & & & & & & & \\& 159127 & 153866 & 165992 & 177843 & 167477 & 163821 & 161700 & 170348 & 174105 & 185103 \\& 184670 & 173385 & 159695 & 173641 & 165706 & 171164 & 168706 & 150684 & 179314 & 163802\end{array} You want to predict your company's future total milk production using the linear trend, quadratic
trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and third-order
autoregressive model.
-Referring to Scenario 16-15-A, what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for 2016 using
a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25?

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Definitions:

Hemoglobin

A red protein responsible for transporting oxygen in the blood of vertebrates, its molecule comprises four subunits, each containing an iron atom.

Le Chatelier's Principle

A principle that states that if a system at equilibrium is subjected to a change in concentration, temperature, volume, or pressure, then the system adjusts to counteract that change and restore a new equilibrium.

Hemoglobin

A protein found in red blood cells responsible for transporting oxygen from the lungs to the rest of the body and returning carbon dioxide from the tissues back to the lungs.

Oxygenated

Refers to compounds or blood enriched with oxygen.

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