A Bicycle Shop Equips 60% of Their Bikes with a Water

question 104

Multiple Choice

A bicycle shop equips 60% of their bikes with a water bottle holder. 55% of the bikes they sell have a kickstand attached to
the bike. 34% of the bikes sold have both features.
-We can tell that these two features are independent because…

• A) These two features don't have anything to do with each other, so we know they're independent.
• B) The probability of having a kickstand given that you have a water bottle (56.7%) is about equal to the probability of having a kickstand (55%).
• C) The probability of having both features (34%) does not equal the probability of having neither feature (19%).
• D) The probability of having both features is not zero; it is 34%.
• E) The probability of having either feature (81%) doesn't equal the probability of having just one feature (60% and 55%).

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Definitions:

Double-Edged Effect

A situation or strategy that has both positive and negative outcomes or implications.

Overconfidence

A cognitive bias where a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments.

Fundamental Attribution Error

The fundamental attribution error is the tendency to overemphasize personal characteristics and underestimate situational influences when explaining someone else's behavior.

Irrational Escalation

The phenomenon where individuals continue or intensify an action or investment beyond a rational point, often due to emotional commitment or previous investments.