TABLE 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 22

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-12, the best interpretation of the coefficient of Q₃ (0.098) in the regression equation is

• A) the revenues in the third quarter of a year is approximately 9.8% higher than the average over all 4 quarters.
• B) the revenues in the third quarter of a year is approximately 9.8% higher than it would be during the fourth quarter.
• C) the revenues in the third quarter of a year is approximately 25.31% higher than the average over all 4 quarters.
• D) the revenues in the third quarter of a year is approximately 25.31% higher than it would be during the fourth quarter.

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Definitions:

Distribution

Describes how the values of a variable are spread or distributed across different categories or intervals.

P > .05

Indicates that the probability of obtaining the observed data under the null hypothesis exceeds 5%, typically leading to failing to reject the null hypothesis.

Null Hypothesis

A hypothesis suggesting no significant difference or effect, serving as the default assumption to be tested against the alternative hypothesis.

Region

A specified area or division within a larger context, whether geographical, spatial, or conceptual, identified by certain characteristics or boundaries.