TABLE 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 76

Short Answer

TABLE 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-12, using the regression equation, what is the forecast for the revenues in the first quarter of 2012?

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Definitions:

Profit-Maximizing

A strategy where a firm adjusts its production and pricing to achieve the highest possible profit.

Loss-Minimizing

A strategy or approach targeted at reducing the negative impact of losses in business or investment.

Perfect Competitor

A theoretical firm in a perfectly competitive market that cannot influence the market price of its product and can only decide the amount of output produced.

Perfectly Elastic

A situation in demand or supply where quantity changes infinitely in response to any change in price.