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TABLE 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the Forecast

question 132

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2008 to 2010. The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln Ŷ = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where Ŷ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-14, using the regression equation, which of the following values is the best forecast for the number of contracts in the third quarter of 2011?

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Definitions:

Portfolio

A collection of financial investments like stocks, bonds, commodities, cash, and cash equivalents, including closed-end funds and exchange traded funds.

Diversification

A risk management strategy that mixes a wide variety of investments within a portfolio to reduce exposure to any single asset or risk.

Insurance

A financial product that provides compensation for specific losses or damages in exchange for regular payments, known as premiums.

Expected Return

The anticipated return on an investment, calculated as the weighted average of all possible returns, weighted by the likelihood of each outcome.