TABLE 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 22

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-12, the best interpretation of the coefficient of Q₃ (0.098) in the regression equation is

• A) the revenues in the third quarter of a year is approximately 9.8% higher than the average over all 4 quarters.
• B) the revenues in the third quarter of a year is approximately 9.8% higher than it would be during the fourth quarter.
• C) the revenues in the third quarter of a year is approximately 25.31% higher than the average over all 4 quarters.
• D) the revenues in the third quarter of a year is approximately 25.31% higher than it would be during the fourth quarter.

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Definitions:

Verification

The process of confirming the accuracy, truth, or validity of something through the provision of empirical evidence or logical proof.

Associative Play

A stage in child development characterized by playing in groups, sharing, and being interested in the activity of other children but not in a coordinated manner.

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A method used to break down and study the structure, form, and function of entities or systems.

Cross-Pollination

The sharing and mixing of ideas, practices, and cultures between different sectors, organizations, or groups to innovate and solve problems.