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TABLE 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the Forecast

question 61

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2008 to 2010. The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln Ŷ = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where Ŷ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-14, in testing the coefficient for Q₁ in the regression equation (-0.083) , the results were a t-statistic of -0.66 and an associated p-value of 0.530. Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

Definitions:

Insurance

A financial agreement where individuals or entities receive protection or reimbursement against losses from an insurer, in exchange for premium payments.

Exculpatory Clause

A contract term that releases one party from liability for harm or damage that might occur to another party, often found in service agreements and waivers.

Insane Person

Refers to an individual with severe mental illness to the point where they cannot understand the nature or consequences of their actions.

Status Indian

A legal identification in Canada for a First Nations person who is registered under the Indian Act, granting them specific rights and benefits.