When People Reason Under Uncertainty and Judge the Probability of Events

question 1

Multiple Choice

When people reason under uncertainty and judge the probability of events, they often use rules of thumb that allow them to take cognitive shortcuts in making judgments. The BEST description of this approach is that people are using:

• A) probability theory to make their judgments.
• B) heuristics that sometimes lead to errors in judgment.
• C) heuristics that never lead to errors in judgment.
• D) algorithms that never lead to errors in judgment.