Haru Was Tossing a Fair Coin and Had Gotten Tails

question 42

Multiple Choice

Haru was tossing a fair coin and had gotten tails four times in a row. He said, "I think I am due to get heads on the next toss." Haru's incorrect judgment is MOST related to:

• A) committing the conjunction fallacy, which is biasing his estimate of probability.
• B) hindsight bias based on the outcome of the last four tosses.
• C) misunderstanding randomness and independent events and using the representativeness heuristic.
• D) illusory correlation and his knowledge that on the last four tosses he got the same result, leading him to experience confirmation bias.

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