When People Reason Under Uncertainty and Judge the Probability of Events

question 1

Multiple Choice

When people reason under uncertainty and judge the probability of events, they often use rules of thumb that allow them to take cognitive shortcuts in making judgments. The BEST description of this approach is that people are using:

• A) probability theory to make their judgments.
• B) heuristics that sometimes lead to errors in judgment.
• C) heuristics that never lead to errors in judgment.
• D) algorithms that never lead to errors in judgment.

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Definitions:

Sigma Control Limits

Statistical boundaries set in process control that indicate whether a process is in a state of control or needs adjustment, based on the standard deviation (σ) of the process data.

Standard Deviation

A statistical measure that quantifies the dispersion or variability of a set of data points around the mean, indicating how spread out the data points are.

Specification Limits

Defined upper and lower bounds within which a product or process measurement should fall to meet quality standards.