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As project manager at Gonzaga Contracting, you currently have a major project nearing completion, but are concerned about the delivery of the roofing materials needed to complete the project.Ace roofing, your main supplier, may need to first deliver materials to another of its clients.You put the chance of that happening at 30%.You believe that if Ace has to first deliver to its other client, there's a 60% chance that you will not get your delivery in time to complete your project on schedule.If Ace does not have to first deliver to its other client, you estimate that the chance that you will not get your delivery in time to finish on schedule falls to 10%.Suppose you now learn that Ace will not be able to deliver your roofing materials in time.How likely is that they had to first deliver to their other client?
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A dimension in which events can occur in sequence from the past through the present to the future, also a critical element in economic models affecting production, consumption, and investments.
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