A Drug Company Is Considering Investing $100 Million Today to Bring

question 53

Multiple Choice

A drug company is considering investing $100 million today to bring a weight loss pill to the market. At the end of one year, the firm will know the payoff; there is a 0.50 probability that the pill will sell at a high price and generate $37 million per year of profit forever and a 0.50 probability that the pill will sell at a low price and generate $1 million per year of profit forever. The interest rate is 10%. What is the expected net present value of this investment?

• A) $280 million
• B) $112 million
• C) $44 million
• D) $90 million

---

Definitions:

Stackelberg

Refers to a model of strategic interaction in oligopolistic markets where one leader firm moves first and the other firms follow.

Cournot

A model of duopoly in which two firms assume the output of the other, deciding their own production levels to maximize profit.

Sequential Game

A type of game theory model where players make decisions one after another, with each player's decision possibly affecting future decisions by themselves or others.

Simultaneous-Move Scenario

A situation in game theory where all players make their decisions or choose their strategies at the same time without knowledge of the others' choices.