SCENARIO 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 115

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 5-year period from 2009 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ Y^ˆ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Time-Series Forecasting 16-31
-Referring to Scenario 16-12,using the regression equation,what is the forecast for the revenues in the third quarter of 2014?

Differentiate between various business structures and their characteristics.

Recognize the effects of interest rates on business investment decisions.

Understand the concepts of the average propensity to consume (APC) and save (APS).

Describe the importance of the capacity utilization rate in economic analysis.

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Definitions:

Equilibrium Price

The price at which the quantity of a good or service demanded equals the quantity supplied, leading to market stability.

Equilibrium Quantity

The quantity of goods or services supplied is exactly equal to the quantity demanded at the market price.

Upward-Sloping Demand

A representation typically contrary to the law of demand, suggesting that as prices increase, the quantity demanded also increases. Generally, this is indicative of Giffen or Veblen goods.

Equilibrium Price

The price at which the quantity of a good or service demanded by consumers is equal to the quantity supplied by producers, leading to market balance.