SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 149

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the first month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.5?

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Definitions:

Internalization

The process of incorporating the beliefs, attitudes, or values of others into one's own belief system.

Moral Standards

Rules or principles governing what is considered right or wrong behavior.

Superego

In Sigmund Freud’s theory, the internalization of the moral standards of society inculcated by the child’s parents.

Reality Principles

The ability of the mind to assess the external world and act upon it rather than based on internal desires.