SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 18

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,if a five-month moving average is used to smooth this series,what would be the last calculated value?

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Definitions:

Birthrates

The rate at which new individuals are born in a population over a certain period of time.

Average Age

The mean age of individuals within a specific population, calculated by dividing the sum of all individuals' ages by the number of individuals.

Cultural Differences

Variations in the beliefs, values, habits, norms, and behaviors among different groups and societies, affecting international relations, business, and social interactions.

Tolerance

The ability or willingness to tolerate the existence of opinions or behavior that one dislikes or disagrees with.