Great-Power War Is Not Unique to the Twentieth Century

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The Answer is Rivalry between great powers has long characterized world politics. As Toynbee suggested, there is a strong probability that this historical pattern is cyclical. Long-cycle theory elaborates on this understanding of world politics and provides a framework for our analysis of evolving great power rivalries. According to long-cycle theory (see Chapter 7 for further discussion), transitions in world leadership unfold through a series of distinct phases where periods of global war are followed by relatively stable periods of international rule making and institution building (see Table 4.1). Shifts in the cycle have occurred alongside changes in the major states' relative power, changing their relations with one another (see Chase-Dunn and Anderson, 2005). Over the past five centuries, each global war has led to the emergence of a hegemon. With its unrivaled power, the hegemon has reshaped the rules and institutions of the global system to preserve its preeminent position.

Great-Power War Is Not Unique to the Twentieth Century

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