DHS Doesn't Know or Doesn't Want Us to Know How

question 16

Multiple Choice

DHS doesn't know or doesn't want us to know how effective its border-security efforts are because

• A) most of them feel that they really aren't doing that good of a job, but they want to hide that fact to increase their budget.
• B) there are too many variables to consider in whether or not something could be considered a preventable terrorist attack.
• C) they use a metric of "number of apprehensions" to say they are doing an effective job, which is a measure of activity, not program results.
• D) not enough time has passed for them to effectively evaluate most program results.

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Definitions:

Availability Bias

The cognitive bias that causes people to overestimate the likelihood of events based on their recallability or prominence in memory.

Confirmation Error

A cognitive bias that involves favoring information that confirms previously existing beliefs or biases.

Framing Error

A mistake in decision-making caused by misrepresenting or misinterpreting the context or information surrounding the decision.

Escalating Commitment

The phenomenon of individuals or organizations continuing to invest in a decision, project, or course of action despite evidence of its failure.