A Defense Contractor Has Submitted a Bid to Make New

question 53

Essay

A defense contractor has submitted a bid to make new helmets for the army.The defense contractor believes that the odds of winning the bid stand at 50-50 chance.Past history indicates that if the bid is successful,there is a 0.75 probability that the contractor will hear about the status of the bid within one week.There is also a 0.40 probability that the contractor will hear from the army within one week if the bid is unsuccessful.What is the probability that the bid is successful if the contractor hears about the status of the bid within one week? Use Bayes' theorem to compute this posterior probability.

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Definitions:

Phrenology

A now-discredited theory that suggested the shape and size of the cranium could be used to infer character traits and mental abilities.

Daniel Kish

An expert in human echolocation and mobility for blind individuals, known for teaching ways to navigate using sound.

Cell Body

The part of a neuron that contains the nucleus; the cell’s life-support center.

Myelin Sheath

A fatty layer that envelops and insulates nerve fibers, enhancing the speed and efficiency of electrical signal transmission along neurons.