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Danny and Borris Make Boxes of Chocolates for Which the Demand

question 78

Short Answer

Danny and Borris make boxes of chocolates for which the demand is uncertain. Danny says, "This is life." On the other hand, Borris believes that there are some demand patterns which could be useful in purchasing sugar, chocolate, and shrimp. (Danny insists on placing a surprise chocolate-covered shrimp in some boxes so that "You never know what you'll get.") Quarterly demand for the last three years follows:
$\begin{array} { | c | c | c | c | } \hline \text { Quarter } & \text { Year 1 } & \text { Year 2 } & \text { Year 3 } \\\hline 1 & 3,000 & 3,300 & 3,502 \\\hline 2 & 1,700 & 2,100 & 2,448 \\\hline 3 & 900 & 1,500 & 1,768 \\\hline 4 & 4400 & 5100 & 5882 \\\hline \text { Total } & 10,000 & 12,000 & 13,600 \\\hline\end{array}$
A) Use intuition and judgment to estimate quarterly demand for the fourth year.
B) If the expected sales for chocolates are 14,800 boxes for year 4, use the multiplicative seasonal method to prepare a forecast for each quarter of the year. Are any of the quarterly forecasts different from what you thought you would get in part (A)?

Definitions:

Levator Ani Iliococcygeus

A component of the levator ani muscle, which supports the pelvic organs and helps in maintaining fecal continence.

External Urethral Sphincter

A circular muscle that controls urination by constricting or relaxing to allow the flow of urine from the bladder.

Pubococcygeus

A muscle of the pelvic floor that supports the pelvic organs and is involved in urinary control and sexual function.

Occipital Bone

A bone at the lower back part of the skull, contributing to the cranial cavity's posterior wall and base.