Turkey in M&N Supermarket Has the Demand Pattern as Shown

question 91

Essay

Turkey in M&N supermarket has the demand pattern as shown in the table below. Find the ‛best' forecast you can for month 25 and justify your methodology. You may use some of the data to find the best parameter value(s) for your method and the rest to test the forecast model. Your justification should include both quantitative and qualitative considerations.
$$\begin{array} { | c | c | c | c | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } & \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \\\hline 1 & 33 & 13 & 37 \\\hline 2 & 37 & 14 & 43 \\\hline 3 & 31 & 15 & 56 \\\hline 4 & 39 & 16 & 41 \\\hline 5 & 54 & 17 & 36 \\\hline 6 & 38 & 18 & 39 \\\hline 7 & 42 & 19 & 41 \\\hline 8 & 40 & 20 & 58 \\\hline 9 & 41 & 21 & 42 \\\hline 10 & 54 & 22 & 45 \\\hline 11 & 43 & 23 & 41 \\\hline 12 & 39 & 24 & 38 \\\hline\end{array}$$

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Definitions:

Tibia

The medial bone of the lower leg; commonly called the shin bone.

Synovial Joints

Flexible connections between bones that are lubricated by synovial fluid, allowing for a wide range of movements.

Fibrous Joint Capsule

A component of a joint surrounded by connective tissue that encloses the ends of bones in a joint, providing stability and strength.

Synovial Joints

Joints that are enclosed in a capsule of connective tissue and contain a lubricating synovial fluid, allowing for smooth movement.