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The Head of Operations for a Movie Studio Wants to Determine

question 88

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The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. (Due to budgeting constraints, only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script 1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run, but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000, but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000. On the other hand, she feels that script 2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000, but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000. If successful, its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000, but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000. Of course, in either case, if the original movie were a flop, then no sequel would be produced.
What is the probability that script 1 will be a success, but its sequel will not?

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Definitions:

Professional Conduct

The set of rules, ethics, and standards that govern how professionals should behave in their professional lives.

Lawyers

Lawyers are professionals licensed to practice law, representing and advising individuals, businesses, and government agencies on legal matters and disputes.

Unethical

Pertaining to actions or behavior that violate moral principles or professional standards, often leading to negative consequences or judgment.

Legal Aid

Services provided to individuals who are unable to afford legal representation and access to the court system, typically funded by the government or nonprofit organizations.

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