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It was more than a century ago that an engineer named Frederick Taylor walked into factories and starting timing workers with a stop watch. He dissected their movements, and organized them more efficiently. He turned factory production into a science. Suppose work was completed in the factory based on what the floor manager decided and workers were paid a flat daily wage. How does this firm organize production?
Expected Payoff
The anticipated return of an investment or decision under uncertainty, calculated as a weighted average of all possible outcomes.
Posterior Probabilities
The probabilities of different possible outcomes or hypotheses being true after considering new evidence, rephrasing the concept in a broader context.
Prior Probabilities
The probabilities assigned to events before any new evidence is considered, often used in Bayesian analysis.
Expected Monetary Value
A calculated average of possible outcomes, where each outcome is weighted by its probability of occurrence and its monetary impact.
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