Exhibit 12.5 The Following Questions Use the Information Below

question 45

Essay

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.
-A simulation model was replicated 100 times yielding a mean of 82.59 with variance of 17.66. Of the 100 replications, 11 replications yielded an outcome over a value of 100. What is the 95% confidence interval on the proportion of simulations whose outcomes exceeded a value of 100?

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Definitions:

Emotion

A complex psychological state that involves a subjective experience, a physiological response, and a behavioral or expressive response.

Actively Seeking Help

The process of looking for assistance or guidance deliberately and consciously from others.

Time Pressure

The stress or anxiety that arises from having to complete tasks within a limited timeframe.

Overwhelmed

A state of being overcome by intense feelings, resulting in a sense of being unable to manage or cope with a situation.