Exhibit 12.5 The Following Questions Use the Information Below

question 39

Essay

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.
-A simulation model was replicated 100 times yielding a mean of 82.59 with variance of 17.66. Of the 100 replications, 11 replications yielded an outcome over a value of 100. The 95% confidence interval of the mean is the interval (81.77, 83.41). Of the 100 simulation outcomes, 65 outcomes failed to fall within this interval. What is wrong with the confidence interval?

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Definitions:

Triangulation

The use of multiple methods or data sources in qualitative research to develop a comprehensive understanding of a phenomenon.

Multiple Methods

Multiple methods involve utilizing various research techniques and data collection tools within a single study to enhance its comprehensiveness and validity.

Focus Groups

A qualitative research method that gathers a group of people to discuss a specific topic or product under the guidance of a moderator.

Elicit Reactions

To provoke or draw out responses or actions from people or groups, often through stimuli or questioning.