Exhibit 12.5 The Following Questions Use the Information Below

question 39

Essay

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.
-A simulation model was replicated 100 times yielding a mean of 82.59 with variance of 17.66. Of the 100 replications, 11 replications yielded an outcome over a value of 100. The 95% confidence interval of the mean is the interval (81.77, 83.41). Of the 100 simulation outcomes, 65 outcomes failed to fall within this interval. What is wrong with the confidence interval?

---

Definitions:

Deficit Financing

Deficit financing refers to the practice where a government borrows money to cover a gap between its spending and revenues, often leading to an increase in public debt.

Tax Policy

Involves the government decisions about what to tax, how much to tax, and on whom the taxes are levied, influencing the economy and distribution of resources.

Supply-Side

Supply-Side economics is a macroeconomic theory arguing that economic growth can be most effectively created by lowering taxes and decreasing regulation to increase the supply of goods and services.

Economic Schools

Economic schools of thought are different approaches or theories economists use to understand, analyze, and predict economic phenomena, each with its own assumptions and methodologies.