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The Operations Manager for a Well-Drilling Company Must Recommend Whether

question 55

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The operations manager for a well-drilling company must recommend whether to build a new facility, expand his existing one, or do nothing. He estimates that long-run profits (in $000) will vary with the amount of precipitation (rainfall) as follows:  ALTERNATIVE  PRECIPITATION  LOW  NORMAL  HIGH  Do Nothing 100100300 Expand 350500200 Build New 7503000\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | } \hline { \text { ALTERNATIVE } } & { \text { PRECIPITATION } } \\\hline& \text { LOW } & \text { NORMAL } & \text { HIGH } \\\hline \text { Do Nothing } & - 100 & 100 & 300 \\\hline \text { Expand } & 350 & 500 & 200 \\\hline \text { Build New } & 750 & 300 & 0 \\\hline\end{array} If he feels the chances of low, normal, and high precipitation are 30 percent, 20 percent, and 50 percent respectively, what is his expected value of perfect information?

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Definitions:

Performance Effectiveness

The level of success in accomplishing goals and resolving identified issues.

Acronym BARS

stands for Behaviorally Anchored Rating Scales, a performance appraisal method linking performance ratings to specific behavioral examples within job-relevant categories.

Performance Appraisal

A systematic evaluation process by which an employee's job performance is assessed by their supervisor or manager.

Evaluator's Observation

The process by which an evaluator consciously watches, records, and assesses someone's performance, skills, behaviors, or outcomes.

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