An Analyst Expects That 10% of All Publicly Traded Companies

question 109

Multiple Choice

An analyst expects that 10% of all publicly traded companies will experience a decline in earnings next year. The analyst has developed a ratio to help forecast this decline. If the company is headed for a decline, there is a 70% chance that this ratio will be negative. If the company is not headed for a decline, there is only a 20% chance that the ratio will be negative. The analyst randomly selects a company and its ratio is negative. Based on Bayes' theorem, the posterior probability that the company will experience a decline is ________.

• A) 3%.
• B) 7%.
• C) 18%.
• D) 28%.

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Definitions:

Bank Failures

Occur when a bank is unable to meet its obligations to depositors or creditors and is either closed or taken over by regulatory authorities.

Bank Management

The process of overseeing and running a bank's day-to-day operations and financial activities.

Barter

An exchange method where goods and services are directly traded for other goods and services without using a medium of exchange, like money.

Deregulation

The process of removing or reducing state regulations, typically in the economic sphere, to encourage efficiency and competition.