Instruction 14-5
a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 87

Multiple Choice

Instruction 14-5
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the three-year period from 2008 to 2010. The following is the resulting regression equation:
$$\log _ { 10 } \hat { Y } = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q _ { 1 } + 1.28 Q _ { 2 } + 0.617 Q _ { 3 }$$
Where
$\hat { Y }$ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
$X$ is the coded quarterly value with $X = 0$ in the first quarter of 2008 .
$Q _ { 1 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
$Q _ { 2 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
$Q _ { 3 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Instruction 14-5,to obtain a forecast for the fourth quarter of 2011 using the model,which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?

• A) X = 15, Q₁ = 1, Q₂ = 0, Q₃ = 0
• B) X = 16, Q₁ = 0, Q₂ = 0, Q₃ = 0
• C) X = 16, Q₁ = 1, Q₂ = 0, Q₃ = 0
• D) X = 15, Q₁ = 0, Q₂ = 0, Q₃ = 0

Appreciate the role of human resources and entrepreneurial efforts in economic development.

Analyze the challenges of population expansion and capital flight in DVCs.

Understand the advantages of infrastructure development in the early stages of economic development.

Recognize the vicious cycle of poverty and how it hampers economic growth in DVCs.

---

Definitions:

Customary Type

Practices or items that are traditional or expected within a certain context or society.

Dividend

A portion of a company's earnings distributed to its shareholders, usually in the form of cash or additional stock.

Properly Declared

Refers to actions or decisions that are formally announced or made known in accordance with established procedures or laws.

Distribution

The process of giving a product, component, or service to the consumer or end user through various distribution channels or supply chains.