Based on the Following Data,a Forecaster Used Simple Exponential Smoothing

question 93

Multiple Choice

Based on the following data,a forecaster used simple exponential smoothing and determined the following: S₀ = 19,S₁ = 18.6,S₂ = 19.08,S₃ = 19.064,S₄ = 19.851 and S₅ = 19.481. Calculate the average forecast error.

• A)3.0
• B)1.80
• C)1.643
• D)1.924

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Definitions:

Slippery Slope Fallacy

A logical fallacy in which a relatively small first step leads to a chain of related events culminating in some significant effect, much like sliding down a slippery slope.

Gambler's Fallacy

A logical fallacy in which one assumes that future probabilities are altered by past events, often seen in gambling when assuming a certain outcome is "due".

Sunk Cost Fallacy

The misconception of valuing a project or investment based on the amount of resources already invested, rather than the prospective future returns.

Argumentum Ad Hominem

A logical fallacy that occurs when an argument is rebutted by attacking the character, motive, or other attribute of the person making the argument, rather than addressing the substance of the argument itself.