Alternatives 1 and 2 in the Following Payoff Table Represent

question 26

Essay

Alternatives 1 and 2 in the following payoff table represent the two possible manufacturing strategies that the EKA manufacturing company can adopt.The level of demand affects the success of both strategies.The states of nature (S_I)represent the levels of demand for the company products.S₁,S₂,and S₃ characterize high,medium,and low demand,respectively.The payoff values are in thousands of dollars. The management believes that weather conditions significantly affect the level of demand.48 monthly sales reports are randomly selected.These monthly sales reports show 15 months with high demand,28 months with medium demand,and 5 months with low demand.12 of the 15 months with high demand had favorable weather conditions.14 of the 28 months with medium demand had favorable weather conditions.Only 1 of the 5 months with low demand had favorable weather conditions.Based on this information,the prior probabilities have been revised.If the weather conditions are favorable,P(S₁)= .4286,P(S₂)= .5357,and P(S₃)= .0357;and if the weather conditions are poor,P(S₁)= .1364,P(S₂)= .6818,and P(S₃)= .1818.It is also determined that the probability of favorable weather is 0.56 and the probability of poor weather is 0.44.Carry out a preposterior analysis and,using the revised probabilities,determine
(1)the expected monetary value when the weather conditions are favorable and
(2)the expected monetary value when the weather conditions are poor.

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Definitions:

Profit Margin

The financial metric that calculates the percentage of revenue that exceeds the costs of producing that revenue, indicating the profitability.

Investment

The assignment of capital with the intention of creating earnings or profit.

F-distribution

A probability distribution used in analysis of variance (ANOVA), for comparing the variances of different populations.

Degrees Of Freedom

The number of independent values or quantities that can vary in the calculation of a statistic, crucial for assessing the statistic's reliability.