Exhibit 18

question 58

Short Answer

Exhibit 18.7.The following table shows the annual revenues (in millions of dollars)of a pharmaceutical company over the period 1990-2011. The autoregressive models of order 1 and 2, and ,were applied on the time series to make revenue forecasts.The relevant parts of Excel regression outputs are given below.
Model AR(1): Model AR(2): Refer to Exhibit 18.7.Using AR(2)model,find the company revenue forecast for 2012.

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Definitions:

Accrued Interest

Interest that has accumulated over time but has not yet been paid.

Loan

An amount of money borrowed that is expected to be paid back with interest.

Days

Units of time representing 24 hours, used universally to measure time periods shorter than a week.

Investment

The action or process of allocating resources, usually money, with the expectation of generating an income or profit.