Annual Estimates of the Population in the Age Group 65

question 7

Essay

Annual estimates of the population in the age group 65+ in a mid-sized city from 2005 (t = 1) onward are shown in the time series graph below. a. Identify the dominant time series component(s) in the data.
b. Below are the results from fitting a linear trend model to the data. Use this model to estimate the 65+ population in this city for 2014 (t = 10).
Fitted Trend Equation , = 145,703 + 801t
c. Below are the results from fitting a quadratic trend model to the data. Use this model to estimate the 65+ population in this city for 2014 (t = 10).
Fitted Trend Equation , = 148,187 - 554t + 135.5t2
d. The actual population estimate for 2014 is 157,218. Which model does better? Why?

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