Quarterly Sales of a Department Store for the Last Seven

question 51

Essay

Quarterly sales of a department store for the last seven years are given in the following table. The Excel scatterplot shown indicates that the quarterly sales have an increasing trend and seasonality.Therefore,the linear regression model,Sales = β₀ + β₁Qtr1 + β₂Qtr2 + β₃Qtr3 + β₄t + ε,with three seasonal dummy variables Qtr1,Qtr2,and Qtr3,and the decomposition method are proposed to make sales forecasts.For the regression model,the following Excel partial output is available. Using the regression equation for the linear trend model with seasonal dummy variables,what can be said about the sales in Quarter 4 compared to the sales in Quarter 1?

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Definitions:

Tranches

Portions or slices of debt or securities that are structured to divide risk or return in a way that is marketable to different investors.

Credit Risk

Credit risk refers to the possibility that a borrower will default on a loan by failing to make the necessary payments.

Seniority

The order of repayment in the event of a sale or bankruptcy, with higher seniority debts being repaid before those of lower seniority.

Mortgage Pass-through Agency

A financial entity that aggregates mortgage loans and creates pass-through securities representing interests in those loans.