The Head of Operations for a Movie Studio Wants to Determine

question 21

Multiple Choice

The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. She feels that script #1 has a 70% chance of earning $100 million over the long run, but a 30% chance of losing $20 million. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80% chance of earning $50 million, but a 20% chance of losing $10 million. On the other hand, she feels that script #2 has a 60 % chance of earning $120 million, but a 40% chance of losing $30 million. If successful, its sequel would have a 50% chance of earning $80 million and a 50% chance of losing $40 million. As with the first script, if the original movie is a "flop," then no sequel would be produced.
What is the probability that script #1 will be a success, but its sequel will not?

• A) 0.8
• B) 0.7
• C) 0.56
• D) 0.2
• E) 0.14

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Definitions:

Addition Problem

A mathematical challenge that involves combining two or more quantities to find their total.

Incorrect Outcome

A result or conclusion which does not accurately follow from the available information or premises.

Coffee Can

A cylindrical container used for storing coffee; it can be made of metal, plastic, or other materials, designed to keep coffee fresh.

Sexual Functions

Processes and activities related to the physical and psychological aspects of sexual health and reproduction.