Steve Gentry,the Operations Manager of Baja Fabricators,wants to Purchase a New

question 94

Essay

Steve Gentry,the operations manager of Baja Fabricators,wants to purchase a new profiling machine (it cuts compound angles on the ends of large structural pipes used in the fabrication yard).However,because the price of crude oil is depressed,the market for such equipment is down.Steve believes that the market will improve in the near future and that the company should expand its capacity.The table below displays the three equipment options he is currently considering,and the profit he expects each one to yield over a two-year period.The consensus forecast at Baja is that there is about a 30% probability that the market will pick up "soon" (within 3 to 6 months)and a 70% probability that the improvement will come "later" (in 9 to 12 months,perhaps longer). a.Calculate the expected monetary value of each decision alternative.
b.Which equipment option should Steve take?

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Definitions:

Contextual Intelligence

The ability to understand the limits of our knowledge and adapt that knowledge to an environment different from the one in which it was developed.

Practical Application

The use of theoretical knowledge in a real-world context, demonstrating how concepts or techniques can be applied to solve problems.

Creative Intelligence

The ability to produce new products, ideas, or inventing novel solutions to problems.

Informal Reasoning

The process of reasoning without a strict structure or rules, often used in everyday decision-making and problem-solving.