Suppose That a Bank Wishes to Predict Whether or Not

question 58

Multiple Choice

Suppose that a bank wishes to predict whether or not an existing holder of its Silver credit card will upgrade, for an annual fee, to its Platinum credit card. To do this, the bank carries out a pilot study that randomly selects 40 of its existing Silver card holders and offers each Silver card holder an upgrade to its Platinum card. Here, the response variable Upgrade equals 1 if the Silver card holder decided to upgrade and 0 otherwise. Moreover, the predictor variable Purchases is last year's purchases (in thousands of dollars) by the Silver card holder, and the predictor variable PlatProfile equals 1 if the Silver card holder conforms to the bank's Platinum profile and 0 otherwise. Below is the classification tree they derived from the data collected in the study. Assume they classify those with an upgrade probability estimate of at least .5 as upgraders. Based on this classification tree, a member of the study sample who made $28,520 in purchases last year and conformed to the bank's Platinum profile but did not upgrade to the Platinum card would be…

• A) accurately classified as an upgrader.
• B) accurately classified as a non-upgrader.
• C) inaccurately classified as an upgrader.
• D) inaccurately classified as a non-upgrader.

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Definitions:

Patrilineal Descent

A system of lineage tracing in which an individual's family membership derives from and is recorded through his or her father's line.

Descent Confers Authority

A principle in certain societies where social status, rights, and leadership roles are determined by one's lineage or family heritage.

Phratry

A social unit or grouping larger than a family but smaller than a tribe, often linked by common descent, marriage, or ritual.

Unilineal Descent Group

A kinship group in which membership is inherited through either the maternal or paternal line only.