Calculate Three Forecasts Using the Following Data

question 134

Essay

Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 11, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 120.0 and an alpha of 0.3. Second, calculate the 3- period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Third, calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 11, using weights of .60, .30, and .10. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why? $$\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \\\hline 1 & 120 \\2 & 115 \\3 & 125 \\4 & 119 \\5 & 127 \\6 & 114 \\7 & 120 \\8 & 124 \\9 & 116 \\10 & 137 \\\hline\end{array}$$

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Definitions:

Episodic Memory

A type of long-term memory that involves the recollection of specific events, situations, and experiences.

Nobel Prize

Prestigious international awards given annually in several categories including Peace, Literature, and various sciences, to individuals or organizations that have made significant contributions to humanity.

Flynn Effect

The observed increase in IQ scores over time across the world, attributed to improvements in nutrition, education, and environmental factors.

IQ Scores

IQ scores, or Intelligence Quotient scores, are a standard measure used to assess human intelligence, typically through standardized tests yielding a score that aims to place an individual’s intelligence level on a scale.