SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 157

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,what is your forecast for the 13^th month using the quadratic- trend model?

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Definitions:

Principles

Fundamental concepts or general laws that guide business practices, accounting standards, and financial reporting.

Internal Control

A process designed to ensure reliability in financial reporting, effectiveness and efficiency of operations, and compliance with laws and regulations.

Fraud

Deceptive practice intended to result in financial or personal gain, often involving the deliberate misrepresentation or omission of critical information.

Reliability

The consistency and dependability of data or an instrument, often measured over time to ensure stability and accuracy in results.