SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 140

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for the 13^th month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.5 if the exponentially smooth value for the 10^th and 11^th month are 9,746.3672 and 9,480.1836,respectively?

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Definitions:

Goods and Services

refers to the output of an economy that can be physically consumed (goods) or experienced (services), and form the basis for economic transactions.

Nonconforming Mortgage Loans

Mortgage loans that do not meet standard bank criteria, often used for borrowers with poor credit histories or for properties that are unique.

Subprime Loans

Loans offered to individuals with a poor credit history or a higher risk of defaulting compared to prime borrowers.

Default Risk

The risk that a borrower will not repay a loan according to the agreed terms, leading to potential losses for the lender.