SCENARIO 16-15-A
You Are the CEO of a Diary Company

question 37

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-15-A
You are the CEO of a diary company. The total milk production (in gallons) from your company
over the past 30 years are presented below and also contained in the Excel file SCENARIO 16-
15-A.XLSX. $$\begin{array} { l r r r r r r r r r r r } \text { Year } & 1986 & 1987 & 1988 & 1989 & 1990 & 1991 & 1992 & 1993 & 1994 & 1995 \\& 1996 & 1997 & 1998 & 1999 & 2000 & 2001 & 2002 & 2003 & 2004 & 2005 \\& 2006 & 2007 & 2008 & 2009 & 2010 & 2011 & 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 \\\text { Milk } & 150201 & 172719 & 171357 & 157121 & 155727 & 152974 & 153443 & 158548 & 162614 & 164210 \\\text { Prod } & & & & & & & & & \\& 159127 & 153866 & 165992 & 177843 & 167477 & 163821 & 161700 & 170348 & 174105 & 185103 \\& 184670 & 173385 & 159695 & 173641 & 165706 & 171164 & 168706 & 150684 & 179314 & 163802\end{array}$$ You want to predict your company's future total milk production using the linear trend, quadratic
trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and third-order
autoregressive model.
-Referring to Scenario 16-15-A, if a five-year moving average is used to smooth this series,
how many moving averages can you compute?

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Definitions:

Managers

Individuals responsible for planning, organizing, leading, and controlling the activities of an organization to achieve business goals.

Planning Process

A series of steps taken to achieve a specific goal, typically involving setting objectives, developing strategies, and outlining tasks and schedules.

Situation Analysis

An assessment of an organization's current situation, identifying its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to inform strategic planning.

Competitive Advantages

Refers to the attributes that allow a company to produce goods or services better or more cheaply than its rivals, thus providing a superior value to the customer and a benefit over competitors.