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SCENARIO 16-15-A
You Are the CEO of a Diary Company

question 233

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SCENARIO 16-15-A
You are the CEO of a diary company. The total milk production (in gallons) from your company
over the past 30 years are presented below and also contained in the Excel file SCENARIO 16-
15-A.XLSX.  Year 198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 Milk 150201172719171357157121155727152974153443158548162614164210 Prod 159127153866165992177843167477163821161700170348174105185103184670173385159695173641165706171164168706150684179314163802\begin{array} { l r r r r r r r r r r r } \text { Year } & 1986 & 1987 & 1988 & 1989 & 1990 & 1991 & 1992 & 1993 & 1994 & 1995 \\& 1996 & 1997 & 1998 & 1999 & 2000 & 2001 & 2002 & 2003 & 2004 & 2005 \\& 2006 & 2007 & 2008 & 2009 & 2010 & 2011 & 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 \\\text { Milk } & 150201 & 172719 & 171357 & 157121 & 155727 & 152974 & 153443 & 158548 & 162614 & 164210 \\\text { Prod } & & & & & & & & & \\& 159127 & 153866 & 165992 & 177843 & 167477 & 163821 & 161700 & 170348 & 174105 & 185103 \\& 184670 & 173385 & 159695 & 173641 & 165706 & 171164 & 168706 & 150684 & 179314 & 163802\end{array} You want to predict your company's future total milk production using the linear trend, quadratic
trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and third-order
autoregressive model.
-Referring to Scenario 16-15-A, what is the value of the t test statistic for testing the
significance of the quadratic term in the quadratic-trend model?

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Definitions:

Interest Expense

The cost incurred by an entity for borrowed funds over a period, typically represented as a financial charge for accessing the capital.

Maturity Value

The total amount that will be paid to an investor at the maturity date of a debt instrument, including principal and any accrued interest.

Interest

The cost of borrowing money, represented as a percentage of the total amount loaned, or the income earned on deposited funds.

Bank Discount

What the bank charges to hold a note until maturity (Maturity Value – Proceeds).

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