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SCENARIO 16-15-B
You Are the CEO of a Diary Company

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SCENARIO 16-15-B
You are the CEO of a diary company. The total milk production (in gallons) from your company
over the past 30 years are presented below and also contained in the Excel file SCENARIO 16-
15-B.XLSX.  Year 198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 Milk 150201193718212520214553237507248069241824234627252049252029 Prod 263449260689247900260059268197249477246216265236256364241705245932243529241551247697248454241974235823243517238490248606\begin{array} { l r r r r r r r r r r r } \text { Year } & 1986 & 1987 & 1988 & 1989 & 1990 & 1991 & 1992 & 1993 & 1994 & 1995 \\& 1996 & 1997 & 1998 & 1999 & 2000 & 2001 & 2002 & 2003 & 2004 & 2005 \\& 2006 & 2007 & 2008 & 2009 & 2010 & 2011 & 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 \\\text { Milk } & 150201 & 193718 & 212520 & 214553 & 237507 & 248069 & 241824 & 234627 & 252049 & 252029 \\\text { Prod } & & & & & & & & & \\& 263449 & 260689 & 247900 & 260059 & 268197 & 249477 & 246216 & 265236 & 256364 & 241705 \\& 245932 & 243529 & 241551 & 247697 & 248454 & 241974 & 235823 & 243517 & 238490 & 248606\end{array} You want to predict your company's future total milk production using the linear trend, quadratic
trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and third-order
autoregressive model.
-Referring to Scenario 16-15-B, what is the value of the t test statistic for testing the
appropriateness of the first-order autoregressive model?


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